GreenCape’s 2025 market intelligence reports (MIRs) identify key investment opportunities in large scale renewable energy, energy services and electric vehicles.
South African non-profit organisation GreenCape has released the 2025 edition of its annual green economy market intelligence reports. The reports, available to download free from https://www.green-cape.co.za/market-intelligence/, highlight the most promising investment opportunities in key renewable energy sectors in South Africa. The reports are published in partnership with the UK’s Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (PACT) programme.
Antony Phillipson, British High Commissioner in South Africa, said: “South Africa’s renewable energy priorities are not just about addressing energy needs but also about driving more sustainable economic development for the country, and for the continent. By embracing sustainable energy solutions, investing in local manufacturing, and prioritising clean energy access, South Africa can build a more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive economy. The UK is committed to working in partnership with South Africa to deliver this ambition.”
Large-scale renewable energy investment opportunities 2025
2025 key insights: Private power purchase agreements and wheeling have grown rapidly. With about 80GW of renewables under development, the race is on to access grid connections, build out collector grids and access wheeling contracts. The 2025 large scale renewable energy MIR expects that about 32GW of these 80GWs currently in development in SA will be grid connected by 2030.
Download the full large scale renewable energy MIR here: Click
Two key investment opportunities are elaborated on:
- Renewable energy development for the private off-taker market: Private renewable energy developments are expected to increase by 6 GW for solar PV and 3.5 GW for wind power by 2030. The investment values of these technologies are R72 billion for solar PV and R60 billion for wind power projects by 2030. The total investment value for this opportunity is R132 billion by 2030 or R26.4 billion per year.
The key barriers to unlocking the private large-scale renewable energy market in South Africa are grid capacity constraints, uncertainty around Eskom unbundling and reform, as well as risks associated with private power purchase agreements. Overcoming these barriers has the potential to unlock further investment in large-scale renewable energy.
- South African Renewable Energy Masterplan to drive local renewable energy component manufacturing: South Africa manufactures a variety of components and inputs for renewable energy. The South African government is actively working towards further localisation of renewable energy manufacturing. Special economic zones, the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan and a range of incentives underpin the Just Energy Transition (JET) Implementation Plan’s focus on local manufacturing. With further market certainty, manufacturing for the renewable energy sector is expected to grow by 2030.
Energy services (ES) investment opportunities 2025
2025 key insights: With approximately 3.2 GW of behind-the-meter (BTM) batteries already installed in the Commercial, Industrial & Agricultural (CI&A) market, and a further 2 GW of new installations expected by 2030, there is an opportunity to unlock the value stack of BTM batteries. Demand response, peak shaving and tariff arbitrage are all nascent cases for batteries, and the MIR expects that these will be influential by 2030.
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South Africa’s ES market for the CI&A market segment continues to grow, driven by factors other than loadshedding. These drivers increasingly include goals such as cost savings, price stability, enhanced energy security in response to infrastructure challenges, and decarbonisation. Embedded solar PV installations, along with BTM energy storage solutions in the CI&A sectors, are expected to remain attractive investment opportunities in the short to medium term.
- Embedded solar PV for the commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors: There are potential investment opportunities in project development, installation, and asset management for embedded solar PV systems for applications in the CI&A sectors. Between 2023 and 2024, the embedded generation sector achieved a 25% compound growth, adding over 2 GW to the total installed capacity, the largest annual increase to date. Embedded solar PV development in the CI&A space is expected to grow by 3.8 GW by 2030. The investment value of this growth is estimated as R53.2 billion. With the reduction in loadshedding, the growth trend is expected to stabilise at an average of 760 MW or R10 billion per year.
As the rollout of embedded generation continues, it is anticipated that the challenges faced by distribution operators will continue and potentially intensify, with complexities associated with managing the grid in areas with a high level of embedded generation penetration becoming increasingly prevalent.
- Behind-the-meter Li-ion energy storage: Li-ion batteries have become the most common form of BTM storage due to their reliable backup power capabilities and numerous value-stacking opportunities. Value stacking refers to the practice of using battery energy storage systems for multiple purposes, each of which generates additional value or savings. Instead of using the storage solely for one function, like backup power, the system can be “stacked” with several revenue-generating or cost-saving functions, unlocking value. The BTM storage market for the CI&A sector in South Africa is expected to stabilise at about 400 MWh per year or R2 billion per year. The market growth by 2030 is expected to be 2 GWh or R10 billion.
Electric vehicles investment opportunities 2025 MIR
2025 key insights: Electrification of last mile delivery, buses and taxis hold the biggest opportunities for sales in South Africa by 2030. Significant work is underway to unlock the passenger vehicle opportunity and the freight and logistics sector, but this will take some time.
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The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) are enabled through innovative financing models, such as the electric vehicles as a service (EVaaS) model. These models are designed to overcome the higher capital cost of EVs compared to internal combustion vehicles. Demand for EVs are driven by increasing fuel costs, improving range capabilities of EVs and a demand for decarbonisation of supply chains.
- Electric passenger vehicles have the highest growth opportunity, but are currently limited to the luxury vehicle market. The increased prevalence of mid-range EV models has the potential to increase the uptake of passenger EVs. The passenger EV market is projected to grow by 21 100 vehicle sales or R13.9 billion by 2030.
- Electrification of freight and logistics is realized through the gradual uptake of lower cost models in the middle-mile logistics sector. The market is expected to grow to 1 000 vehicles by 2030, with a value of R1.43 billion.
- Electric micro-mobility market for last-mile delivery in South Africa: The rise of e-commerce, on-demand last-mile delivery services from the retail sector leads to more frequent, shorter, and higher-mileage delivery trips for small packages, ideal for electric two- and three-wheelers. The MIR anticipates an annual growth rate of 20% for electric micro-mobility from a base of 3 800 vehicles at the end of 2024. By 2030, this market is projected to grow by 17 900 vehicles, with a market value of R1.2 billion.
- Electrification of the public transport sector is realised through increased electric bus procurement in 2024 and long term procurement targets set by bus operators. Based on bus fleet operators who have made public announcements regarding electric bus roll out plans, electric bus sales are expected to grow by 420 buses between 2025 and 2030, or R2.9 billion.
Further growth in the uptake of EVs can be unlocked through reducing policy and regulatory uncertainty, technological improvements to improve affordability and vehicle capability and investment in the electrical grid to accommodate reliable EV charging.
GreenCape’s support to businesses and investors
Through close working relationships with businesses, investors, government, and academia, GreenCape’s sector desks are in a unique position to collect, create, and disseminate free market intelligence on the green economy. Get in touch to explore these investment opportunities in greater depth.
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NOTES TO EDITORS
About GreenCape: GreenCape is a non-profit organisation that drives the widespread adoption of economically viable green economy solutions from South Africa. The team works with businesses, investors, academia and government to unlock the investment and employment potential of green technologies and services, and to support a transition to a resilient green economy. GreenCape’s vision is to create a thriving and prosperous Africa using green economy principles.
